イエメン:内戦停戦合意、2回目の延長ドバイ:ハムダン皇太子の双子のこどもたち

2022年08月03日

イラン:ライシ大統領就任1年振り返り

Raisi's First Year in Power
イランのライシ大統領が就任してから1年が経ちました。
Iran Primerが、元CIA分析官で、現在議会の調査サービス局でイラン問題エキスパートを務めるDr. Kenneth Katzmanにこの一年の業績を振り返ってもらいました。
前職のロウハニ大統領は穏健派、他方でライシ大統領は強硬派。ハメネイ最高指導者の覚えも目出度き人物で、後継者と目されています。
経済政策では、米国の強力な経済制裁の影響で、高い物価上昇率と失業率に打つ手がないようですが、それでも抵抗経済は持ちこたえ破綻していません。やはり中国や隣国との貿易、高油価の恩恵もあります。
2015年イラク核合意の再建に関しては、イラン側は焦る理由がないので、言いたいことは言うという姿勢です。米国の次期大統領が、トランプ元大統領のように勝手に一方的に離脱しないとの言質を取るまでは譲歩しないという姿勢です。焦っているのは中間選挙や2024年大統領選を控えるバイデン政権だと考えています。

2022/8/2Iran Primer

Explainer: Raisi's First Year in Power

USIP interviewed Dr. Kenneth Katzman, a former CIA analyst, who is now an Iran expert at the Congressional Research Service (CRS). His responses are made in his personal capacity, not for CRS or the Library of Congress.

 

Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner, has now been in power for one year. What are the major differences from his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, a centrist?

Rouhani and Raisi Aug 2021

Presidents Rouhani and Raisi

 

Raisi has long expressed hardline views on both domestic and foreign policy. The United States sanctioned him in 2019, citing his role in domestic repression. Raisi is best known for serving on the so-called “death commission” that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Raisi was critical of Rouhani in both his failed 2017 presidential campaign and his successful 2021 campaign.

Raisi, like all presidents, replaced the ministers of his predecessor. Rouhani’s cabinet included several ministers who were educated in the West or were open to engagement with the West. In contrast, Raisi’s team was largely educated in Iran and has favored boosting ties with Asian powers. Five of his ministers were designated under U.S. sanctions.

The change in foreign ministers was a microcosm for the transition. Rouhani’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, spoke fluent English after receiving a B.A. and an M.A. from San Francisco State University, and an M.A. and PhD in international relations from the University of Denver. Zarif also served in New York as Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2002 to 2007. As foreign minister (2013-2021), he played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal and developed a working relationship with Secretary of State John Kerry.


Amir-Abdollahian2
  
Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian

 

By contrast, Raisi’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaks fluent Arabic and stilted English. He received a PhD in international relations from the University of Tehran. During his career at the foreign ministry, he was posted to Iraq and Bahrain and had portfolios largely focused on the region. As foreign minister, his priorities are to improve relations with Iran’s neighbors as well as Asian countries. Amir-Abdollahian reportedly has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

 

The change in president and ministers, however, has not translated into much of a shift. Raisi has generally continued down the same path as Rouhani on domestic and foreign policy.

 

How has the Raisi government handled the economy?

The deck was stacked against Raisi when he came into office. Iran has been under extensive U.S. sanctions since the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and launched its “maximum pressure” campaign. Raisi also inherited an economy rife with corruption, nepotism and inefficiency. Like his predecessors, he has pledged to tackle inflation, corruption and tax evasion, but has made limited progress. In May-June 2022, food prices were up more than 80 percent compared to the same period in 2021, according to official figures.

Iran Inflation 2018-2022 graph
 Inflation 2018-2022

 

Raisi set a target of eight percent growth in his budget for the Iranian year that began in March 2022. The International Monetary Fund, however, has projected only three percent growth.

Raisi has limited options to boost trade or foreign investment because very few countries or businesses are willing to defy U.S. sanctions. The U.S. economy is a behemoth with a GDP of $23 trillion. Iran’s GDP is about $250 billion. Most countries and businesses do not want to risk getting cut off from the much larger U.S. market for the limited opportunities in doing business with Tehran. China has been willing to buy a lot of Iranian oil, but that’s the main notable exception.

 

How has the government dealt with the sporadic protests over soaring prices, unpaid salaries, low pensions, and corruption?

The Raisi government has responded in much the same way as the Rouhani government. Officials have acknowledged the right of citizens to protest but have also made clear that they will not allow demonstrations to burn too hot. Security forces have used deadly force to disperse protests.

In May 2022, protests erupted across several provinces in response to subsidy cuts that led to a spike in prices of food staples. At least five people reportedly died in clashes with security forces, and dozens were arrested.

 

What impact has Raisi had on Iran’s foreign policy? What have been his priorities—and how have they either been the same or differed from the Rouhani government. What has he done or achieved?

Raisi has been relatively cautious and has not changed the overall direction of foreign policy. In Iran’s system, the president can guide foreign policy, but he is only one of several players at the Supreme National Security Council, the most powerful body for setting national security policy. Raisi has little reason to rock the boat or take major risks because Iran’s position in the region is relatively strong. It has sponsored armed proxies and political allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen that help project power and influence across the region.

Israel to Afghanistan map
  
Mideast map

 

Raisi’s priorities have been easing tensions with Iran’s neighbors and boosting ties with Asian powers, especially China and Russia. Raisi has also focused on expanding Iran’s trade with Central Asian countries, perhaps thinking they may not strictly abide by U.S. sanctions. He has been active on the diplomatic front. As of July 2022, he had traveled to Oman, Qatar, Russia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan (twice). Raisi’s first trip was to Tajikistan, where he participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in September 2021. The regional economic and security bloc, led by China and Russia, accepted Iran’s bid for membership 15 years after it applied.

 

Afghanistan: Raisi took office in August 2021 as the Taliban took over wide swaths of Afghanistan, which shares a 572-mile border with Iran. Raisi welcomed the departure of U.S. forces but cautiously engaged with the Taliban. Iran had supported opposition forces against the Taliban when it last ruled the country from 1996 to 2001. Raisi has repeatedly called for an inclusive government that includes all political factions and reflects Afghanistan’s religious and ethnic diversity. Tensions have flared over sporadic altercations at border crossings.

China: Under Raisi, Iran has increased oil exports to China. In January 2022, Iran reportedly exported more than 700,000 barrels per day – more than Iran exported before the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018. China has also continued to invest in a broad range of Iranian industries, including oil and gas, lumber, and light manufacturing. But this pattern began years ago.

Iraq: In August 2021, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian participated in a regional conference in Baghdad along with presidents, kings or foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. French President Emmanuel Macron also participated. The goal was to ease regional tensions. Iran continues to support an array of Shiite militias and political parties, which may be in a position to form a government more to their liking.

 

Baghdad summit group photo 8-28-21
 Baghdad summit

 Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (second from right) at the Baghdad conference


Israel:
Since Raisi took office, Israel has allegedly carried out several operations, including two drone strikes and an assassination, in Iran. But Iran’s responses have been surprisingly muted. In March 2022, Iran fired a dozen ballistic missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan. The IRGC claimed that it targeted Israeli “strategic centers” in Erbil. The only other notable retaliation appeared to be a plot to assassinate Israeli tourists in Istanbul that was foiled by Turkish authorities and Israel’s Mossad in June 2022. But those moves were relatively small compared to the alleged Iranian strike on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in 2019 or sabotage of Gulf shipping that occurred during Rouhani’s presidency.

Lebanon: Iran continues to provide weapons, including missiles and drones, and funding to Hezbollah, the Shiite political party and militia. Hezbollah has evolved into the strongest armed group in Lebanon and one of the most influential political players.

Oman: In May 2022, Raisi visited Muscat to sign deals for expanded cooperation on energy, transportation, education, and trade.

Qatar: Raisi signed agreements on transportation, trade, tourism, energy, and education during a visit to Doha in February 2022. Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani visited Tehran to discuss ways to boost bilateral ties in May 2022. They also discussed diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal.

Putin Raisi July 2022
  
Presidents Putin and Raisi

 

Russia: In perhaps the most significant change, Iran has accelerated the expansion of ties to Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine, which has led to extensive Western sanctions on Russia and made President Vladimir Putin “radioactive” around the world. Raisi met Putin three times in the first seven months of 2022 alone. When Putin visited Tehran in July, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “If you had not taken the helm, the other side [NATO] would have done so and initiated a war,” he told Putin. Russia has also shown an interest in purchasing Iranian drones, according to the White House. On energy, the two countries have cooperated as part of OPEC+ to try to keep oil prices high. But Russia has also started to heavily discount its oil to sell to China, putting it in competition with Iran.

Saudi Arabia: Iran has continued a series of talks that began in April 2021 to restore diplomatic relations, which were severed in 2016. In July 2022, Iran announced its readiness to move talks to the political level. Iraq mediated the talks.

Syria: Iran continued to bolster the Assad regime, which has regained much territory from rebel and jihadi groups since the civil war broke out in 2011.

United Arab Emirates (UAE): Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian made a rare visit to Abu Dhabi to pay respects following the death of President Sheikh Khalifa in May 2022. He said that the two countries were turning a “new page” after years of tensions. As of July, the UAE was considering sending an ambassador back to Tehran. The UAE had downgraded its ties with Iran in 2016.

Yemen: Iran continued to provide weapons to the Houthi rebels. But it also welcomed the U.N.-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and Yemeni government that began in April 2022 and has subsequently been renewed.

 

In his first year, what has the Raisi government done on the 2015 nuclear deal? How has his position continued or differed from the Rouhani government?

Rouhani appeared more willing than Raisi to compromise with the United States to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Indirect talks between the six major world powers and Iran started in the last months of Rouhani’s presidency, in April 2021. The negotiations paused just after Iran’s presidential election in June. Raisi took office in August, but his government conducted an internal review of the negotiations that took some three months. Raisi picked Ali Bagheri Kani, a career diplomat who had long criticized the JCPOA, to head the negotiating team. Talks finally resumed in late November 2021, but U.S. and European diplomats expressed frustration that Iran’s new team backtracked on earlier commitments and demanded more concessions on U.S. sanctions.  

Mora and Bagheri Kani Dec 2021
 Bagheri Kani (center), Iran's chief negotiator

 

Raisi has been more skeptical about the deal’s durability and benefits. He is closer to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has always had doubts about the JCPOA and distrusts the United States. Even before the United States withdrew from the deal in 2018, officials complained that Iran was not adequately benefitting from the deal because it was still barred from the U.S. financial system.

Raisi may also see the restoration of the nuclear deal as less urgent than his predecessor. The political clock in Washington, namely the potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election, may play into Iran’s calculus. Raisi’s negotiating team has demanded a guarantee that a future U.S. president will not withdraw from the deal again. But Biden cannot provide that assurance without ratifying the JCPOA as a treaty in the Senate. Meanwhile, many lawmakers– including potential presidential candidates – have opposed Biden’s efforts to revive the JCPOA. So Iranian leaders may assess that sanctions relief, as part of a restored deal, could end as early as January 2025 when a new U.S. president takes office.

Furthermore, Iran could need six or eight months to dismantle parts of its nuclear program to come back into full compliance with the deal. By the time the United States lifts sanctions, Iran could have a window of less than two years of sanctions relief, maybe 18 months or less depending on the timing. And while negotiations are stalled, time is shrinking.

Iran Crude and Condensate Exports 2022
 Iran's Crude exports 2022

 

Raisi and his advisors may also calculate that Iran’s economy can get along under U.S. sanctions. Iran has managed to increase oil sales to China. Even though Iran sells oil at a discount, it has benefitted from high global prices in 2022. On July 26, the economy minister boasted that revenue from oil and condensate exports was 580 percent higher from March 21 to July 21 compared with the same period in 2021. The potential benefits of short-term sanctions relief may not be very enticing for Tehran.

Raisi is not as keen on bolstering economic ties with Western countries compared to Rouhani. Rouhani visited Europe twice during his tenure, and he tried to push through reforms to Iran’s business environment to help attract foreign investment. In contrast, Raisi has pledged not to tie the economy to “the will of foreigners.” Some members of his economic team subscribe to the “resistance economy” model, which prioritizes self-sufficiency to neutralize the impact of sanctions.

But Iran’s hesitation over restoring the JCPOA may well be due more to changing circumstances than changes in leadership.

 

What have been the Raisi government’s priorities on security and on military advances? How have they differed from the Rouhani government?

Shahed 129 Fars sm
 Shahed-129 drone on display

 

Again, the policy has been mostly a continuation. Iran lacks modern warplanes. It still flies vintage models procured under the monarchy. So it has expanded its airpower with much cheaper missiles and drones. Iran had some 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal as of March 2022, according to General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command at the time. It has focused on improving the accuracy and increasing payload of solid fuel missiles, which can be easily transported and launched at short notice. Iran has developed a diverse fleet of drones that can perform reconnaissance as well as attack functions.

Iran is increasingly eager to export arms. In May 2022, Iran opened a drone factory in Tajikistan. Russian officials reportedly visited Iran at least twice in June/July 2022 to see the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones. The Shahed-191 was based on a captured U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel, and the Shahed-129 was based on a captured U.S. MQ-1 Predator.

 

How has his government handled the Covid pandemic?

Raisi_Vaccine
 President Raisi gets his first dose of CovIran Barekat

 

Raisi took office in August 2021 amid a fifth wave of infections. Only three percent of Iran’s population was fully vaccinated at the time. In his first month in office, the government curtailed travel and traffic, and imposed a six-day lockdown to stem the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant. But the government relaxed restrictions as it rolled out vaccines, largely supplied by China. By mid-July 2022, 66 percent of Iranians were fully vaccinated. But Raisi was not directly responsible for the approach to the pandemic. Iran’s healthcare system is one of the better systems in the region.

 

Photo Credits: Rouhani and Raisi via Khamenei.ir (CC BY 4.0); Amir-Abdollahian via Khamenei.ir (CC By 4.0); Baghdad summit via Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Mora and Bagheri Kani December 2021 via Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Shahed 129 from Fars Media Corporation, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; Raisi via President.ir

https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2022/aug/02/explainer-raisis-first-year-power

 

2022/8/2付日経新聞記事】

イラン経済、遠い再建 強硬派ライシ大統領就任1

【ドバイ=福冨隼太郎】イランで保守強硬派のイブラヒム・ライシ大統領が国会で就任を宣誓してから5日で1年となる。優先課題の物価高対策は足元の消費者物価上昇率がなお40%ほどで、失業率高止まりする。経済不振の主因は米国の制裁だが、解除に必要な核合意の再建協議はロシアのウクライナ侵攻に水を差され、見通しが立たない。

イラン統計センターによると、同国の消費者物価上昇率は7月下旬の時点で前年の同じ時期に比べ40.5%に達した。パン、コメ、食用油や肉類など主要な食料品を中心に値上がりが続いている。テヘランの会社員の女性は「物価の上昇に合わせて給料が上がるようにしてほしい」と、イラン政府へ不満を口にした。

米国はトランプ前政権時代の2018年に核合意からの離脱を表明した後、イラン産原油の禁輸措置をはじめとする制裁を発動したままだ。米欧の対ロシア制裁の影響で原油価格が高止まりしても、有数の産油国であるイランが受ける恩恵は小さい

211月に就任したバイデン米大統領はイランの核開発を抑制する代わりに同国への制裁を緩和する核合意への復帰を模索し、欧州連合(EU)を仲介役としてイランと再建協議を始めた。双方の譲歩で一時は妥結寸前との観測が流れたが、核合意の一員であるロシアが侵攻し、米欧の制裁を受けた影響で宙に浮いた状態だ。

EUボレル外交安全保障上級代表726日、英紙フィナンシャル・タイムズ(FT)への寄稿で、事態打開を目指して新たな妥結の草案を関係者に示したと明らかにした。イランの交渉担当者は同月31「協議を終わらせる用意はできている」とツイートし、草案に何らかの回答をした可能性を示唆した。

一方、イランの米国への不信は根深い。イラン政府は6月、核合意の履行を監視するため国際原子力機関(IAEA)が同国の核関連施設に設けた監視カメラの機能の停止を表明したが、イランメディアは25日、これが再建協議が妥結するまで続く見通しだと報じた。ライシ師は大統領就任時の演説で「制裁解除に向けてあらゆる手段を講じる」と強調していたが、その公約は果たせていない。

ライシ政権が接近するのはロシアと中国だ。719日にはプーチン氏をテヘランに招き、トルコのエルドアン大統領を交えて会談した。同月29日には中国の習近平(シー・ジンピン)国家主席と電話で協議し、協力強化で一致した。中国もイラン核合意の当事国だが、米国と激しく対立しており、ロシアと協調する姿勢をみせる。

テルアビブ大学(イスラエル)の国家安全保障研究所に所属するラズ・ジムト博士は「保守派にも経済面でのライシ師の『失政』を指摘する声はある」と話す。だが、大統領を監督するイランの最高指導者、ハメネイ師のライシ師への信頼は厚い。ライシ師は次の最高指導者の候補としても取り沙汰されている。

ハメネイ師に直属する軍事組織、革命防衛隊もライシ師を支持している。革命防衛隊は政治だけでなく、建設などイランの多くの企業も支配している。米欧との急な関係改善で既得権益が奪われる事態を警戒し、対外強硬姿勢を崩さない。核開発は原子力発電所を軸とするエネルギー確保と医療目的だと主張しており、核兵器の開発を一貫して否定している。



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イエメン:内戦停戦合意、2回目の延長ドバイ:ハムダン皇太子の双子のこどもたち