2021年04月23日
イラン:バイデン政権が経済制裁解除リストを提示
US open to lifting terror sanctions on Iran central bank: Report
米国とイランは4月上旬よりオーストリアの首都ウィーンで、2015年核合意の当事者である英仏独中露とEUを介した間接的な協議を行っています。第2ラウンドとなった今週、米国はトランプ前政権がイランに対して再開したさまざまな経済制裁のなかで、解除可能な対象を提示したことが4/21に明らかになりました。
提示された内容の詳細は分かりませんが、イランに核合意の再履行を迫り、米国の核合意復帰に向けた協議を進展させるための大きな一歩であることは間違いありません。
バイデン政権はこれまで、イランが核合意を遵守すれば、経済制裁を解除すると主張してきましたが、これに対しイランは、先に米国が核合意から一方的に離脱したのだから、経済制裁の解除が先であると反発してきました。イランは合意に反してウランの濃縮度を引き上げ、核開発を加速させ、米国や国際社会に揺さぶりをかけていますが、すこしですが、風が吹き始めたかもしれません。
ただし、6/18に予定されているイラン大統領選挙が段々と迫っていますが、保守強硬派の勝利はほぼ確実で、穏健派のロウハニ大統領やザリフ外相のもとでの交渉妥結は時間的に厳しいとみられています。
そうなれば、保守強硬派の大統領は、国際社会との協調なしでも、「抵抗経済」のもとでイランは発展すると唱道することになります。
コロナで経済がすでに疲弊し、またいつ終息するかもまったく見通せない現状において、40年が経過したイラン・イスラム革命体制から一般庶民がなにも享受できない、恩恵が感じられなくなれば、イラン国民は現体制に愛想をつかすことになります。
なお、イラン政府が4/22に発表した感染状況は、一日に感染者2万4,092人、死者453人。累計では感染者233万5,905人、死者6万8366人に達しました。
ワクチン接種に関しては、1回目は51万8904人、2回目も終わったのは14万8,298人です。
コロナ禍で一日の感染者数、死者数がとんでもない数字である現状を直視すれば、イラン側もワクチン供給を受けるためにはある程度の妥協は必要だとは思いますが、やはりどの制裁が解除されれば、その見返りとしてどの核関連制限の義務を受け入れるかということです。
【2021/4/22付Middle
East Eye記事】
US open to lifting terror sanctions on Iran central bank:
Report
Washington has signalled that it could lift
sanctions on key Iranian economic sectors, including steel, aluminium and
textiles, Wall Street Journal reports
The Biden administration has signalled it
is open to lifting sanctions against key elements of Iran's economy, including
terror sanctions against its central bank, its oil companies, and steal and
aluminum sectors, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with
the matter.
In addition to lifting those designations,
the newspaper reported that Washington may give sanctions relief for textiles,
autos, shipping, and insurance, according to a senior European official.
The report comes as the second round of
ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna wrapped up for this week. The next round
is set to resume next week.
On Wednesday, a senior
State Department official said the US provided Iran with examples of sanctions
Washington would negotiate to secure a deal.
"I think they have a
pretty clear sense at this point about our view about the sanctions that we're
going to have to lift," and those "that we would not lift", the
official said during a briefing.
The official did not
comment on the specific sanctions Washington was willing to lift, but noted a
third category of designations making negotiations difficult: the terrorism
sanctions imposed on Iranian economic entities by former President Donald
Trump.
The official said the administration was
reviewing to see which of these were "legitimately or not legitimately
imposed".
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has lauded
the progress of the talks, saying on Tuesday that negotiations to revive the
nuclear deal have advanced to about "60, 70 percent".
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador to the
UN atomic agency and chief negotiator at the talks, told the Journal that
negotiations could be complete by late May, when an agreement for continued
International Atomic Energy Agency oversight of Iran's nuclear activities would
expire.
Not all will be lifted
Still, despite the progress made, officials
have said that some designations are likely to prove contentious, such as the
"foreign terrorist organisation" designation of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps and the terror listing of Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei.
The US is not currently considering lifting
its terror sanctions on the IRGC, the people familiar with the matter told the
newspaper.
An Iranian official told the Journal that a
return to the nuclear agreement would only end 800 new US sanctions and terror
designations, half of the 1,500 sanctions Iran estimates have been imposed.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) signed by the US, Iran and world powers in 2015 lifted sanctions
against Tehran after it scaled back its nuclear programme.
In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew
from the nuclear agreement and reimposed crippling sanctions on Tehran. Iran
initially continued to abide by the deal but has reduced some of its
commitments since 2019.
Last week, Iranian officials said they were
pushing uranium enrichment to 60 percent purity, up from the 3.67 percent that
had been agreed upon in the JCPOA.
The move was in response to an attack at
Iran's Natanz nuclear facility that Tehran blamed on Israel.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-open-lifting-terror-sanctions-iran-central-bank-report