2024年02月16日
Foreign Affairs:Gaza and the End of the Rules-Based Order
Gaza and the End of the Rules-Based Order
What the Israel-Hamas War Means for the Future of Human Rights and International Law
By Agnès Callamard
ガザとルールベースの秩序の終焉
Ø 「ルールベースの秩序の終焉」とは、国際社会において従来の国際法や人権体制に基づく秩序が崩壊し、新たな時代が始まっているという考え方。記事では、ガザにおけるイスラエルとハマスの戦争を通じて、国際法の侵害や人権の蹂躙が進んでいることが指摘され、これが「ルールベースの秩序」の崩壊を象徴していると主張されている。
Ø 「ルールベースの秩序」は、第二次世界大戦後に築かれ、国際法や国際機関、人権の普遍性を尊重する原則に基づいていた国際秩序を指す。しかし、記事は、9/11を契機に始まった「テロとの戦争」などの影響で、国際法がねじ曲げられ、国際人権体制が侵食されたと主張している。イスラエルのガザへの軍事行動や、これに対する米国などの西洋諸国の支持が、これらの変化を象徴しているとされている。
Ø 記事は、「ルールベースの秩序の終焉」がもたらす可能性のある結果として、不安定性、侵略、紛争、苦しみが増加し、唯一の抑制が暴力になるだろうと警告している。これを回避するためには即時の停戦や人道的措置が必要であり、国際刑事裁判所による戦争犯罪の起訴なども求めている。
1. イスラエルとハマスの戦争は4か月以上にわたり、イスラエルの報復キャンペーンは戦争犯罪と国際法の違反のパターンで特徴づけられている。
2. イスラエルの戦争の正当化は、ハマスの排除であり、ハマスがイスラエルに対する10月7日の攻撃で犯した恐ろしい犯罪に対するものである。
3. イスラエルはパレスチナ人を強制的に避難させ、基本的な人間の必需品を欠いた状態を課し、無差別かつ過度な攻撃を行っている。28,000人以上のパレスチナ人が死亡し、ガザの広範な地域が壊滅的な被害を受け、住む価値がなくなっている。
4. 米国や西洋諸国はイスラエルを支持し、軍事支援を提供し、国連での停戦要請に反対し、パレスチニアン難民を支援するUNRWAへの資金提供を停止し、南アフリカのICJでのイスラエルに対するジェノサイド事件を拒否している。
5. 今日の外交的な共犯行為は、国際法と国際人権体制の数十年にわたる侵食の結果であり、「テロとの戦争」によるものである。
6. 人権普遍性の原則は、国際人権体制の中心にあり、すべての人が平等に人権を有するという考え方である。
7. 20年以上にわたり、「テロとの戦争」の教義と方法は世界中の政府に採用され、国際法と普遍性の原則をねじ曲げてきた。
8. ガザでのイスラエルの大規模な爆撃は、国際法の侵害の21世紀的な表れであり、ポスト第二次世界大戦の制約がほとんど尊重されていない。
9. 西洋諸国はハマスの犯罪を非難し、イスラエルを無条件に支持してきたが、イスラエルの無差別な爆撃が数千の市民を殺害していることが明らかになると、その言葉を変えるべきだった。
10. 米国はイスラエルの戦術を擁護し、国際法違反に対する責任を取らないままである。
11. ルールベースの秩序の終焉は、より多くの不安定性、侵略、紛争、苦しみをもたらす可能性があり、その結果として唯一の抑制はますます暴力となるだろう。
12. この最悪のシナリオを回避するためには、イスラエルとハマスの両方によるすべての軍事行動の即時停止、ハマスによって拘束された市民人質およびイスラエルによって違法に拘束されたすべてのパレスチナ人の即時解放、およびガザの包囲の解除が必要である。
【2024/2/15付Foreign
Affairs】
Gaza and the End of the Rules-Based Order
What the Israel-Hamas War Means for the
Future of Human Rights and International Law
By Agnès Callamard
After more than four months of conflict,
Israel’s campaign of retaliation against Hamas has been characterized by a
pattern of war crimes and violations of international law. Israel’s stated
justification for its war in Gaza is the elimination of Hamas, which is
responsible for the horrific crimes committed during its October 7 attack on
Israel: 1,139 people, mostly Israeli civilians, killed; thousands more wounded;
a yet unknown number of women and girls subjected to sexual violence; and 240
people taken hostage, many of whom are still held by Hamas.
In response, Israel forcibly displaced
Palestinians, imposing conditions that have left hundreds of thousands without
basic human necessities. It has carried out indiscriminate, disproportionate,
and direct attacks on civilians and “civilian objects,” such as schools and
hospitals. Some 28,000 Palestinians have been killed, the majority of them
women and children. Vast sections of Gaza have been pulverized; a fifth of its
infrastructure and most of its homes are now damaged or destroyed, leaving the
region largely uninhabitable. Israel imposed a prolonged blockade, denying
Palestinians adequate food, potable water, fuel, Internet access, shelter, and
medical care: action amounting to collective punishment. It is detaining Gazans
in inhumane and degrading conditions, and Israel admits that some of those
detained have already died. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, violence against
Palestinians by Israeli forces and settlers has increased markedly.
The United States and many Western countries
have supported Israel, providing military assistance, opposing calls for a
cease-fire at the United Nations, stopping funding of the UN Relief and Works
Agency serving Palestinian refugees, and rejecting South Africa’s genocide case
against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), even as the carnage
continued to unfold.
Today’s diplomatic complicity in the
catastrophic human rights and humanitarian crisis in Gaza is the culmination of
years of erosion of the international rule of law and global human rights
system. Such disintegration began in earnest after 9/11, when the United States
embarked on its “war on terror,” a campaign that normalized the idea that
everything is permissible in the pursuit of “terrorists.” To prosecute its war
in Gaza, Israel borrows ethos, strategy, and tactics from that framework, doing
so with the support of the United States.
It is as if the grave moral lessons of the
Holocaust, of World War II, have been all but forgotten, and with them, the
very core of the decades-old “Never Again” principle: its absolute
universality, the notion that it protects us all or none of us. This
disintegration, so apparent in the destruction of Gaza and the West’s response
to it, signals the end of the rules-based order and the start of a new era.
THE AGE OF UNIVERSALITY
Universality, the principle that all of us,
without exception, are endowed with human rights equally, no matter who we are
or where we live, lies at the heart of the international human rights system.
It was the foundation of the Genocide Convention and Universal Declaration of
Human Rights, both adopted in 1948, and it continued to inform new means of
accountability over the years, including the International Criminal Court,
established in 2002. For decades, that legal infrastructure has helped ensure that
states uphold their human rights obligations. It has defined human rights
movements globally and underpinned the twentieth century’s greatest human
rights achievements.
A critic of this system might argue that
states have only ever paid lip service to universality. The twentieth century
abounds with examples of failures to uphold the equal dignity of all: the
violence used against those advocating for decolonization, the Vietnam War, the
genocides in Cambodia and Rwanda, the wars that followed the breakup of
Yugoslavia, and many more. These events all testify to an international system
rooted more in systemic inequality and discrimination than in universality.
With good reason, one could contend that universality was never applied to
Palestinians, who, as the Palestinian American scholar Edward Said expressed
it, have been, instead, since 1948, “the victims of the victims, the refugees
of the refugees.”
Yet the fate of universality resides not in
the hands of those who betray it. Rather, as a perennial ambitious project for
humankind, its power rests, first and foremost, in its continual proclamation
and in its persistent defense. Throughout the twentieth century, the principle
of universality had countless setbacks, but the overarching direction was
toward proclaiming, affirming, and defending it. That shifted, however, in the
early years of the twenty-first century, with the unleashing of the “war on terror”
following the tragic events of 9/11.
TAKING THE GLOVES OFF
For the last 20 years, the doctrine and
methods of the “war on terror” have been adopted or mimicked by governments the
world over. They have been deployed to expand the reach and range of state
“self-defense” measures and to hunt down, with the barest of restraints, any
people or authorities deemed to warrant the loosely defined but widely applied
designation of “terrorist threat.”
The extraordinary toll of civilian killings
in Gaza committed in the name of both self-defense and countering terrorism is
a logical consequence of that framework, which has perverted and almost
dismantled international law and, along with it, the principle of universality.
American airstrikes in Afghanistan, Iraq,
Pakistan, Somalia, and Syria resulted in mass civilian casualties. Invariably,
the U.S. military would claim that it had taken the necessary steps to protect
civilians. But it gave little explanation as to exactly how it distinguished
civilians from combatants and why, if distinguished properly, so many civilians
had been killed.
Over the last 20 years, governments around
the world have adopted similar methods. In Syria, Russia’s relentless bombings
of civilian infrastructure led to thousands of civilian deaths. Yet in cases
documented by Amnesty International, Russian authorities claimed their armed
forces were striking “terrorist” targets, even when they were destroying
hospitals, schools, and markets. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was also
justified with spurious references to self-defense and exceptions to the
prohibition of the use of force. Its indiscriminate attacks have led to
thousands of civilian casualties, amid mounting evidence of crimes under
international law, such as torture, deportation and forcible transfer, sexual
violence, and unlawful killings. China, too, has invoked “the fight against
terrorism” to justify its widespread crackdown on Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other
predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, which resulted in crimes
against humanity.
Israel’s massive bombardment of Gaza has
roots that go deeper in history than the long running “war on terror,”
including the 1948 expulsion of roughly 750,000 Palestinians from their homes,
which came to be known as the nakba, or catastrophe. But it is also a
thoroughly twenty-first-century manifestation of the erosion of international
law in which little to none of the restraints set by the post–World War II
system have been respected: not those in the UN Charter, in international human
rights law, or even under the Genocide Convention, as argued by South Africa.
WHERE IS THE OUTCRY?
Immediately after October 7, Western
governments condemned Hamas’s crimes and expressed unconditional support for
Israel, an understandable and predictable response to the horror inflicted on
the population of a close ally. But they should have shifted their rhetoric
once it became clear, as it quickly did, that Israel’s bombing of Gaza was
killing thousands of civilians. All governments, especially those with
influence over Israel, should have unequivocally and publicly denounced
Israel’s unlawful actions and called for a cease-fire, for the return of all
hostages, and for accountability for war crimes and other violations on both
sides.
It did not happen. For the first two months
of the war, the Biden administration largely downplayed the loss of lives in
Gaza. It failed to denounce Israel’s relentless bombings and devastating siege.
It did not acknowledge the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
including 56 years of Israeli military occupation, and instead bought into
Israel’s counterterrorism framing.
And as the war continued, the Biden
administration defended Israel’s tactics. It parroted certain of Israel’s
unverified and later repudiated claims about Hamas atrocities. Although the
United States eventually became more vocal about the protection of Palestinian
civilians, it has refused to publicly support key steps that would help save
their lives. Instead, at the UN, the United States vetoed Security Council
resolutions calling for humanitarian pauses to the war. Only on December 22 did
it permit, through its abstention, the Security Council to adopt a compromise
resolution calling for “urgent steps to immediately allow safe and unhindered
and expanded humanitarian access” to Gaza and “the conditions for a sustainable
cessation of hostilities.” It has never publicly entertained stopping its arms
transfers to Israel.
Within days of the ICJ ruling and its calls
for provisional measures to prevent genocide in Gaza, the United States and a
number of other Western governments canceled funding to the UN Relief and Works
Agency, which provides a lifeline to people in Gaza. That decision does not
just ignore the evident risks of genocide; it serves to amplify and accelerate
them. The United States’ superpower status and its influence over Israel means
Washington is uniquely positioned to change the reality on the ground in Gaza.
More than any other country, the United States can prevent its close ally from
continuing to commit atrocities. But thus far, it has chosen not to.
This pattern of conduct comes at a huge
cost. As one G-7 diplomat has put it, “We have definitely lost the battle in
the Global South. All the work we have done with the Global South (over
Ukraine) has been lost. ... Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever
listen to us again.”
A CHANGE OF ERAS
Although there were rehearsals for events in
Gaza that showed extreme disregard of international law, the war there may well
signal a curtain call. The risk of genocide, the gravity of the violations
being committed, and the flimsy justifications by elected officials in Western
democracies warn of a change of eras. The rules-based order that has governed
international affairs since the end of World War II is on its way out, and
there may be no turning back.
The consequences of this abandonment are all
too apparent: more instability, more aggression, more conflict, and more
suffering. The only check on violence will be more violence. The end of the
rules-based order will also bring spreading and palpable anger across all
layers of society, in all corners of the earth, except among those positioned
to reap whatever sullied rewards can be extracted from the breaking
international system.
But steps can be taken to avert this
worst-case scenario. They start with the immediate cessation of all military
operations by both Israel and Hamas, with the immediate release of all
remaining civilian hostages detained by Hamas and of all Palestinians
unlawfully detained by Israel, and with the lifting of the siege of Gaza. The
ICJ’s provisional measures to prevent genocide in Gaza must be fully
implemented.
Israel and its biggest supporter, the United
States, must accept that the stated military objective of destroying Hamas has
wrought an overwhelming cost to civilian lives and infrastructure, which likely
cannot be justified under international law. It is now more important than ever
that the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court act decisively to
deliver indictments for crimes committed by all parties to the conflict.
Neither historical grievances nor long-term
prospects for peace in the Middle East, and arguably beyond, can be addressed
without an international and inclusive process that specifies a dismantling of
Israel’s system of apartheid and allows for the security and rights of all
populations to be protected.
The painful memories of wrongs, both recent
and from long ago, can help save lives today, as well as in the future, in
Israel, in the Palestinian territories, and beyond. That process must begin
immediately, however, as time is running out. If history indeed repeats itself,
as we are told it often does, then we should consider ourselves well warned.
With the universal application of international law likely in its death throes
and nothing yet to take its place save brutalist national interests and sheer
greed, widespread anger can be, and will be, exploited by the many ready to
foster even broader instability on an even greater global scale.
AGNÈS CALLAMARD is Secretary General of
Amnesty International. From 2016 to 2021, she served as UN Special Rapporteur
on extrajudicial, summary, or arbitrary executions.
2024年01月30日
ガザ戦争:ガザの統治に関し、サウディなどの親米国が秘密裏に協議
Saudi, Egypt, Jordan and PA intelligence officials secretly met to discuss Gaza’s future
2024/1/29付MEMOによれば、イスラエルによるガザ地区への継続的な爆撃と侵攻が終わった後のガザ地区の統治に関して、サウディアラビア、エジプト、ヨルダンおよびパレスチナ自治政府(PA)の情報関係者が、今月秘密裏に会合したとのことです。
サウディアラビア国家安全保障担当アドバイザーMusad Al-Aiban氏がこの会合を主催し、パレスチナ総合情報長官Majed Faraj氏、エジプト情報長官Abbas Kamel氏およびヨルダン情報長官Ahmed Hosni氏が出席しました。
ガザの未来については、とくに「新しいパレスチナ自治政府」がガザの統治に参加する方法に焦点が当てられました。
2つの情報源から確認できたことは、サウディ、エジプトおよびヨルダンはFarajiパレスチナ情報長官に対し、PAは指導部の更新のための改革を行い、それによって一部の権限をアッバース大統領から新しく指名された首相に移す道を開かなければならないと要求したとのこと。
また、サウディは、イスラエルとの国交正常化交渉を続ける意向を強調し、しかしそのような合意はイスラエルと国際社会が独立したパレスチナ国家の確立を確実にするために実用的で不可逆的な手段に拠ると繰り返したとのこと。
上記6か国の大使館や当局はまだこの秘密会議の報告の正確性を確認していないようですが、いくつかの参加者がイスラエルにその内容を伝えたという情報もあります。イスラエルや他の国がこの会合にどのように関与しているかは明らかではありませんが、戦後のガザ統治に関しPAが関与する可能性があるというアイディアは、過去数か月にわたりイスラエルおよび西側で提唱されてきた穏健な意見の一つです。なお、イスラエルのネタニヤフ首相は、これはありえないと主張しています。
なお、興味深いことに、ヨルダン、PA、エジプトはいずれも米国から多大な支援を受けていて、それがなければ国が崩壊してしまうほどの親米国です。
また、サウディも米国製最先端の軍備装備品の提供を受ける見返りとして、イスラエルとの国交正常化に道に向けた協議を行っていたことから、それをほぼ台無しにしたハマスには怒り心頭ではないでしょうか?Vision2030 の実現にも多大な影響がないか心配ですね。
【2024/1/29付MEMO】
Saudi,
Egypt, Jordan and PA intelligence officials secretly met to discuss Gaza’s
future
Intelligence officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA) secretly met this month to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip’s governance following the end of Israel’s ongoing bombardment and invasion of the besieged territory, a report has revealed.
According to The Jerusalem Post, which
cited several anonymous sources, Saudi Arabian National Security Adviser, Musad
Al-Aiban, organised a meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, around a week ago
which was attended by Palestinian General Intelligence chief, Majed Faraj,
Egyptian intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, and Jordanian intelligence chief,
Ahmed Hosni.
The officials reportedly discussed the
future of Gaza after Israel’s war on it and Palestinian Resistance group,
Hamas, ends, particularly regarding ways in which a “renewed Palestinian
Authority” can take part in the management of the Strip.
Two sources familiar with the contents of
the meeting were cited as revealing that the Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians
urged the Palestinian intelligence chief, Faraj, that the PA must carry out
reforms in order to pave the way for a renewal in its leadership ranks. That
renewal would apparently include the transfer of certain powers from PA
President, Mahmoud Abbas, to a newly-appointed prime minister.
During the meeting, the Saudis also
reportedly emphasised their interest in continuing normalisation talks with
Israel, while reiterating that such a deal would be conditional upon practical
and irreversible steps by Tel Aviv and the international community to ensure
the establishment of an independent Palestinian State.
Although none of the countries’ embassies
and authorities have yet confirmed the veracity of the report on the secret
meeting, one source reported that Israel was informed about the meeting and its
contents by some of the participants.
Any potential involvement by Tel Aviv or
other foreign nations in the gathering have not been revealed, but the use of a
renewed PA as an entity to govern post-war Gaza has been one idea – amongst the
few moderate ones – espoused by the Israeli and Western sides over the past few
months, despite Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, insisting that will
not be the case.
If the PA were to assume the governance of
the besieged Territory, however, Israel’s occupation forces would likely
tightly control the Strip’s security, as is the case in the West Bank.
ガザ戦争:英政府がイスラエル・パレスチナ紛争の5つのステップを提案
UK
lays out roadmap for permanent solution to Israel-Palestine conflict
英国はイスラエル・パレスチナ紛争の永続的な解決に向けた計画を発表しました。
アンドリュー・ミッチェル国際開発・アフリカ担当外務相は、①新しいパレスチナ政府の形成、②国際支援パッケージの提供、③ハマスのイスラエルへの攻撃能力の排除、④イスラエルの人質の解放、そして⑤主要なハマス指導者がガザを離れることに同意するという5つのステップを挙げました。「これらのすべては複雑に絡み合っている。すべてが揃わなければ、どれも確保できない」と述べました。
アラブ・イスラエルの国交正常化、安全保障の保証、およびガザ再建のための資金調達など、他にも考慮すべき要素が多くありますが、「今永続的な平和に向けて機運を醸成する必要があり、それがなぜ今一時停止を求めることが非常に重要であるか、そしてなぜできるだけ早く主要なプレイヤーを結集させるコンタクト・グループ会議が必要なのか」と述べました。
国際司法裁判所(ICJ)がイスラエルに対し、ガザでの虐殺行為を防ぐために「できる限りの措置を講じるように」と命じたことに関しては、英政府はガザでのイスラエルの行動を虐殺とは見なしていないと述べました。ICJの仮措置について「もちろん、ICJの役割と独立性を尊重している。裁判所は仮の措置に関する決定を下した。これにより、ガザへの支援の増加と、基本的なサービスの確保のための措置が求められた。また、イスラエルに対して虐殺の苦情に関連する証拠の保全を命じ、1か月以内に進捗について報告するよう求められている」と述べました。
【2024/1/29付MEMO】
UK
lays out roadmap for permanent solution to Israel-Palestine conflict
The British government announced that it
has identified five steps for a sustainable permanent cease-fire without a
return to fighting between Israel and Palestine, Anadolu Agency reports.
Speaking at the House of Commons on Monday,
the Foreign Office Minister for International Development and Africa, Andrew
Mitchell, said
the recommended plan starts with forming a new Palestinian government for the
West Bank and Gaza, accompanied by an international support package.
He then listed the remaining three points: “Removing Hamas’s capacity to launch
attacks against Israel. The release of all Israeli hostages, and the key Hamas
leaders agreeing to leave Gaza. All of these things are intricately linked.
We cannot secure one without all of the others.”
Mitchell
says there are also many other elements to consider, such as Arab-Israeli
normalisation, security guarantees and financing the rebuilding of Gaza.
“We need to generate momentum now towards a
permanent peace and that is why pushing for pause now is so important. And that
is why we need a contact group meeting, bringing together the key players as
soon as possible.”
Commenting on the International Court of
Justice (ICJ) ordering Israel to take “all measures within its power” to
prevent acts of genocide in Gaza, Mitchell said the UK government does not
believe Israel’s actions in Gaza can be described as genocide.
“Of course, we respect the role and
independence of the ICJ. The Court has now reached a decision on provisional
measures. They call for increased aid into Gaza and measures to ensure basic
services as we have been calling for. They have ordered Israel to preserve
evidence relating to complaints of genocide, reporting to the Court on progress
within one month.”
ガザ戦争:カタルLNG 船も航路変更
Red
Sea Instability Forces Qatar To Divert LNG Cargoes
紅海およびイエメンでの攻撃と反撃が激化するなかで、カタルは西スエズ向けLNG輸送の航路の迂回を余儀なくされた。LNG主要輸出国としてのカタルのこの決定は、遅延と追加コストをもたらすことになる。ただし、ヨーロッパのウクライナ紛争後におけるカタル産天然ガス需要は、ますます多くの米国産の積荷が市場に供給されることで減少している。
紅海での不安定な情勢は、国際航海およびエネルギー企業にとって航行が非常に困難な状況となっている。主要企業によって制御されたコンテナ船およびタンカーの船団は、継続的な攻撃の波に直面し、これに対処するために公然とあるいは静かに紅海から遠ざけられている。
2024/1/15、米国所有および運営のバルクキャリア「ジブラルタル・イーグル」(IMO: 9702508)は、イエメンのイラン支援フーシ派による対艦弾道ミサイルの攻撃を受けた。翌16日、フーシ派は「ゾグラフィア」(IMO: 9486013)バルクキャリアに攻撃を仕掛け、船は紅海を北上していたと報じられている。この船はギリシャ所有、マルタ船籍で、ベトナムからイスラエルに向かっていたとされている。これに続いて1/17、アデン沖での米国バルクキャリア「ジェンコ・ピカルディ」(IMO:
9301720)への攻撃に成功した。
【2024/1/19付MEES】
Red
Sea Instability Forces Qatar To Divert LNG Cargoes
Issue:
67 / 3 By: James Marriott
Escalating attacks and counterattacks in
the Red Sea and Yemen have pushed Qatar to divert its West-of-Suez LNG
shipments. As a leading LNG exporter, the decision will have knock-on delays
and costs, although Europe’s post-Ukraine conflict need for Qatari volumes has
reduced as more US cargoes have hit the market.
Volatility in the Red Sea has proven an
impossible situation to navigate for international shipping and energy
companies. A fleet of container and tanker traffic controlled by world-leading
companies have been either officially or quietly diverted away from the Red Sea
in the face of continual waves of attacks.
On 15 January, the US-owned and operated
bulk carrier Gibraltar Eagle (IMO: 9702508) was struck by an anti-ship
ballistic missile from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement. The following day,
the Houthis struck the Zografia (IMO: 9486013) bulk carrier as it was heading
north through the Red Sea. Greek-owned and Malta-flagged, the vessel was
reportedly sailing from Vietnam to Israel. This was followed on 17 January by a
successful attack on the US bulk carrier Genco Picardy (IMO: 9301720) off the
coast of Aden.
ガザ戦争:イエメン停戦合意は崩壊
Yemen
Escalation Risks Ceasefire Plan & Energy Hopes
紅海およびバブ・アル・マンデブ海峡でのフーシ派の攻撃が国際的な注目を集め、米国とフーシ派の緊張がほぼ合意された停戦の突破口を一時的に封じ、経済および人道危機を悪化させている。
毎日のようにエスカレートする一連の出来事で、フーシ派と米主導連合軍は、国際的な紛争を紅海からイエメンの地にもたらした。
米英が2024年1月11日にフーシ派の拠点に初めて攻撃を仕掛けて以来、両者は攻撃を繰り返している。
フーシ派はイランのイスラム革命防衛隊の支援を受け、紅海の船舶に繰り返し攻撃を仕掛け、米英はこれまでにイエメンの拠点に対して9回の軍事攻撃を行っている。
外交的にも危機はますます解決が難しくなっている。米国はフーシを「特定の指定された地球規模のテロリスト」と再指定したが、フーシ派は自分たちの攻撃がイスラエルに対するガザでの戦争を止めさせるための圧力だと主張し続けている。
米英ともに、イスラエルの戦争とフーシ派の攻撃の間には一切の関連性がないと認めておらず、これは彼らの主要な湾岸諸国とは異なる立場だ。
(続きありますが、MEESで公開されている部分のみ訳しました!)
表題には”Energy Hopes”の文字があります。どんな内容なのか興味津々です。
【2024/1/26付MEES】
Yemen
Escalation Risks Ceasefire Plan & Energy Hopes
Issue:
67 / 4 By:James Marriott
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab
al-Mandeb have brought global attention to Yemen. Heightened US-Houthi tension
has put a nearly-agreed breakthrough truce on hold and heightened a looming
economic and humanitarian crises.
In an almost daily series of escalations,
both the Houthis and the US-led coalition have brought an international
conflict in the Red Sea onto Yemen’s soil. Since the US and UK launched their
first strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on 11 January (MEES, 12 January
2023), both sides have continually exchanged attacks: the Houthis repeatedly
firing on vessels in the Red Sea with help from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps; and the US and UK launching nine military strikes so far on
targets in Yemen.
On the diplomatic front, the crisis is also
looking increasingly intractable. The United States has redesignated the
Houthis as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists,” while the Houthis continue
to claim their attacks are aimed at pressuring Israel to stop its war on Gaza. Both
the US and the UK refuse to acknowledge any link between Israel’s war and the
Houthi attacks, a stance at odds with their main Gulf allies (MEES, 19
January).
2024年01月29日
EPC:Gulf Countries and the Gaza War: A Clear Regional De-Escalation Approach
Gulf
Countries and the Gaza War: A Clear Regional De-Escalation Approach
要点:
Ø 一部の湾岸諸国の公式発表によれば、ガザ地区での即時停戦は中東の他の緊張地域での状況緩和にとって不可欠なステップであること。
Ø 湾岸諸国の立場は、ガザと紅海での出来事に対処する際に包括的な解決策に焦点を当て、地域の危機管理の論理を克服する必要があるという観点から。
Ø ガザから得られた重要な教訓の一つは、政治的な進展には、とくに米国からの強力な保証が必要であること。
Ø 現在必要なのは、即座な政治的な取り組みと、武力行使が地域の安定を向上させるには限界があるという認識をイスラエルに植え付けること。
【2024/01/24付Emirates Policy Center】
Gulf
Countries and the Gaza War: A Clear Regional De-Escalation Approach
Mohammed
Barhouma
Key Takeaways
Ø Statements by some Gulf officials reiterating the need for an
immediate ceasefire in Gaza shows this step as an indispensable prelude for
de-escalation in other flashpoints in the Middle East.
Ø Gulf’s positions on what is going on in Gaza and the Red Sea stem
from the importance of focusing on comprehensive solutions and the need to
overcome the logic of crisis management in the region.
Ø A key lesson from Gaza is that the political track requires stronger
guarantees, especially from the American side.
Ø The need of the hour is an immediate commitment to the political
track and an Israeli conviction that the use of force cannot enhance regional
stability.
(参考和訳)
Ø ガザ戦争が続く中、アラブ湾岸諸国はパレスチナ問題を優先し、政治的な解決策が中東の緊張を和らげ、地域および水路の安全を促進する必要性を強調している。湾岸の政治的なアプローチは、危機管理から戦略的なビジョンの採用への移行を目指しており、2国家解決策に対するイスラエルの受け入れには不確実性が残るものの、その課題に取り組んでいる。
Ø ガザ戦争から4か月後、政治的なトラックの弱体化がイランの地域的な影響を高め、緩和アプローチを弱め、非国家の行為者、民兵、過激派政府による国家と地域の安全に対するリスクを引き上げている。湾岸の立場は包括的な解決策に焦点を当てる必要性に基づき、即時停戦が他の地域の緊張の緩和に不可欠であるとの見解で一致している。
Ø アラブ湾岸諸国は、米国がこのアプローチを支持し、早期にイスラエルとハマスの戦争に終止符を打ち、新戦略を検討する役割を果たすことを期待している。ブリンケン米国務長官は、湾岸諸国がガザの復興に参加する際、パレスチナ地域が数年以内に再び「地に平らげられる」リスクに直面する可能性を指摘し、これが湾岸の懸念の一因となっている。
Ø ガザの紛争は権力政治の制約と限界を浮き彫りにし、危機に対する公正で包括的な政治的枠組みが必要であるという重要な教訓を提供している。
As the catastrophic war in the Gaza Strip
continues, a more transparent and assertive Arab Gulf stand is taking shape. Politicians
in these countries reiterate the need to bring the Palestinian issue back to
the fore and insist that a genuine and serious political prospect for the
Palestine-Israel conflict will de-escalate tension in the Middle East and
facilitate efforts to enhance regional and waterways security.
This Gulf approach is taking the war in
Gaza and its consequences as an opportunity to move from crisis management to
providing practical solutions, from temporary prescriptions to adopting a
strategic vision. This vision is not devoid of challenges, considering
uncertainties the war has inflicted on a profound acceptance of the two-state
solution on the Israeli side.
Once again, it was
noticed after four months of war in Gaza a weakened political track strengthens
Iran’s axis in the region. It weakens the de-escalation approach, enhances
military and security solutions, and raises risks represented by non-state
actors, militia, and militant governments for nation-states and regional
security.
A More Connected Vision
Gulf positions on Gaza and the Red Sea seem
to stem from the importance of focusing on comprehensive solutions beyond
crisis management. However, successfully convincing parties to the conflict and
international actors of this logic will open an opportunity for a strategic
shift in dealing with the Middle East’s affairs after over two decades of
compartmentalizing issues and only settling for power balance on the ground.
Several events and experiences proved that this approach embodies many
loopholes and defects, making the crisis more intense and wider.
Today, there is an increasing convergence
between the Palestinian and Iranian issues. This is evident, for instance, in
the Red Sea’s growing militarization and Bab al-Mandab Straits due to
relentless violence in Gaza. There has been sufficient clarity in statements
issued by some Gulf officials on the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, a
prelude for de-escalation in other regional flashpoints.
This is likely what Qatari Prime Minister
and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani,
said on January 16 at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He asserted that
military strikes will not contain attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on commercial
shipping lanes in the Red Sea, but an end to the Gaza War will. He described
the current regional situation as a “recipe for escalation everywhere” and that
“defusing the conflict in Gaza will stop the escalation on other fronts.”
The Qatari official
reiterated the centrality of the Palestinian issue in consolidating the
de-escalation approach by saying that “we need to address the central issue,
which is Gaza, to get everything else defused...if we are just focusing on the
symptoms and not treating the real issues, (solutions) will be temporary.”
Arab Gulf countries expect the United
States to play a pivotal role in making this approach a comprehensive and rapid
reality. In November 2023, two months before the
ongoing Red Sea escalation, an Emirati call called the US “to push for a quick
end to the Israel-Hamas war and devise a new strategy or Washington will be
seen as ineffective.” According to Dr.
Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President, this call
reiterates that “the two-decade policy of containment of the Palestinian issue
by Israel had failed and a new approach is needed to address refugees, borders,
and East Jerusalem.”
The message from Dr. Gargash was clear. He
emphasized that the duration of this war would determine the measure of US
influence — the sooner it ends, the better the situation. He correlated this
criterion with another, suggesting that the effectiveness of the American role
would also depend on whether an alternative problem-solving approach could be
pursued. He elaborated further: “If the current crisis, especially the
humanitarian aspect, persists, and if we revert to the old containment policy
prevalent before October 7, 2023, the American role may not be considered
effective.”
Time Standard
Another significant detail emerged during
the Davos Summit when the Qatari Prime Minister stated: “The big picture, including urging the
international community to demand that Israel agree to a time-bound and
irreversible path to a two-state solution, cannot be ignored.” This
underscores the importance of “not leaving this matter solely in the hands of
the Israelis.” While the emerging Gulf approach may not necessarily indicate a
prior consensus among Gulf countries on these statements, it does not diminish
their importance. These statements can be described as consistent and
integrated in their perspective on “de-escalation.”
Saudi Arabia explicitly stated its position
through its Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan. “We agree that regional
peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for
the Palestinians through a Palestinian state,” he told a panel at the World
Economic Forum in Davos. Adding to this, the Saudi minister stated: “A ceasefire on all sides should
be a starting point for permanent, sustainable peace, which can only happen
through justice to the Palestinian people.”
US Understanding?
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s increasingly
clear approach to de-escalation in the aftermath of the Gaza War appears to
have garnered understanding from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This
understanding is evident in his recent statements emphasizing that Arab
countries are reluctant to engage in Gaza’s reconstruction if the Palestinian
Strip faces the risk of being “razed to the ground” again within a few years.
Blinken underscored the
significance of establishing a Palestinian state to achieve any regional
settlement. He pointed out the emergence of a “new equation” in the Middle
East, stating that Israel’s Arab and Muslim neighbors are willing, under this
new paradigm, to integrate Israel into the region. However, they are equally
committed to a path that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Conclusions
The conflict in Gaza has exposed the
constraints and limitations of power politics, underscoring that enduring
solutions to crises necessitate a just and inclusive political framework. To
reshape the “de-escalation” narrative in the Middle East and mitigate the
conflict escalation risk, the interconnection between the Palestinian and
Iranian issues and their ramifications is growing evident. The Houthi military
escalation in the Red and Arabian seas exemplifies this.
Statements from Gulf officials emphasizing
the importance of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza indicate that such a step is a
crucial precursor to de-escalation in other tense hotspots across the region.
This highlights the interconnectedness between successful preparations for the
day-after in Gaza and beyond and the need to address the conflict’s root
causes. The Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commenting on the US-British
bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen on January 11, 2024, said it is imperative
to link the future to the past and cease the policy of double standards.
While Israel’s right-wing faction leaders
in the ruling coalition oppose the idea of Palestinian statehood, US Secretary
of State Antony Blinken has observed that the challenge lies in the willingness
of Israeli society to collaborate toward a new vision with the region and its
people. Simultaneously, Blinken cautioned that any Palestinian Authority
lacking support from Israel would be unable to facilitate the necessary
conditions for cooperation between the two sides.
Arguably, one of the pivotal lessons
gleaned from the ongoing Gaza War is that discussions about the imperatives of
the political track necessitate stronger assurances, particularly from the
American side. There is a need for actual and swift commitment to this path and
an Israeli acknowledgment of the limitations of power-centric policies in
advancing regional stability. Instead, the focus should shift toward
recognizing that such policies might serve as a gateway to chaos and extremism.
Ø ガザ戦争は、政治の力の限界を露呈し、危機に対する持続可能な解決策には公正で包括的な政治的枠組みが必要だと示している。中東の「緊張緩和」の物語を変え、紛争のエスカレーション・リスクを軽減するためには、パレスチナとイランの問題の相互関連性がますます明らかになっている。紅海とアラビア海でのフーシ派の軍事的エスカレーションは、これを実証している。
Ø アラブ湾岸の官僚がガザでの即時停戦の重要性を強調する発言は、このステップが地域全体の他の緊張地帯での緩和の重要な前提条件であることを示している。これは、ガザとそれ以降の日常の準備と紛争の根本的な原因への取り組みの相互関連性を強調している。2024年1月11日にフーシ派の拠点を爆撃した米英の行動に関するオマーン外務省のコメントでは、未来を過去に結びつけ、二重基準の政策を止めることが不可欠だと述べられている。
Ø イスラエルの右派指導者たちはパレスチナの国家樹立のアイディアに反対しているが、ブリンケン国務長官は、イスラエル社会が新しいビジョンに協力する意欲にあるかどうかが課題であると指摘した。同時に、ブリンケンはイスラエルの支援を受けないパレスチナ自治政府は、両者の協力のための必要な条件を整えることができないだろうと警告した。
Ø 現在のガザ戦争から得られた重要な教訓の1つは、政治的な進展の必要性についての議論にはとくに米国のより強力な保証が必要であるということ。この方法への実質的で迅速なコミットメントと、地域の安定を進めるためには、力に依存する政策の限界を認識し、それよりもそのような政策が混乱と過激主義への入り口となり得ることを認識する必要がある。
ガザ戦争:揺れるイスラエル国内世論
Israel:
Fighting erupts between police, protesters in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv
l ハマスの壊滅を狙いイスラエルの世論が割れている。
l 国民の半数が戦闘の継続を求めるが、戦闘を止めるべきだとの意見も根強い。
l イスラエルでは、ベナヤミン・ネタニヤフ首相の辞任とガザで拘束されている人質の解放を求める抗議活動が発生。警察はデモ参加者を追い払おうとして、エルサレムやテルアビブでは衝突が発生。デモ参加者は「今すぐ選挙」と叫び、ネタニヤフの即時解任を求めた。
l ハマスによる攻撃でガザでは現在、拘束された136人の人質がいる。
l ICJはガザにおける大量虐殺行為の阻止を求め、それにもかかわらずイスラエルは攻撃を続けており、ガザでは死者26,257人、負傷者64,797人。
l ガザの人口の85%が食料、清潔な水、医薬品の深刻な不足に見舞われ、60%のインフラが被害。
【2024/1/28付MEMO】
Israel:
Fighting erupts between police, protesters in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv
Fighting erupted Sunday between Israeli
protesters and police attempting to disperse crowds in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv,
according to Israeli media, reports Anadolu Agency.
The protesters were
demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the release
of hostages held in Gaza.
The Israeli broadcasting authority reported
that police “attempted to disperse the protesters in Paris Square, in the center
of West Jerusalem, where several of them were arrested.”
The evacuation in West Jerusalem, estimated
to be in the hundreds, followed confrontations with police.
In Tel Aviv, police arrested several
protesters in Kaplan Square in the city center, while hundreds were dispersed
by force, and some protest equipment was seized, according to the Yedioth
Ahronoth newspaper.
It said that “thousands of Israelis
gathered in Kaplan Square to demand the resignation of
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and early elections.”
Protesters raised the slogan: “Elections Now” and chanted for the immediate dismissal
of Netanyahu, according to the report.
Several other areas in Israel witnessed
protests with thousands participating, demanding the dismissal of the
government and the release of hostages.
They included Haifa, Caesarea, Kefar Sava,
Rehovot and Beersheba, according to the Israeli broadcasting authority and
Yedioth Ahronoth.
As protests intensified, Netanyahu
criticized demonstrations by the families of hostages held in Gaza as “useless
and contributing to the demands of Hamas.”
Israeli officials
estimate that 136 hostages are still held in Gaza after Hamas launched an
attack on Israeli military positions and settlements in the Gaza envelope on 7
October 2023.
Palestinian factions, led
by Hamas, captured around 239 hostages, releasing dozens during a temporary
humanitarian pause that lasted seven days and ended in early December.
In return, Palestinian prisoners’
organisations stated that, under the pause, Israel
released 240 Palestinian prisoners, including 71 women and 169 children.
Despite a provisional ruling Friday by the
ICJ that ordered Tel Aviv to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza, Israel continued
its onslaught against the coastal enclave where at least 26,257 Palestinians
have been killed, mostly women and children, and 64,797 injured since 7 October
2023, according to Palestinian health authorities.
The Israeli offensive has left 85% of
Gaza’s population internally displaced amid acute shortages of food, clean
water and medicine. In comparison, 60% of the enclave’s infrastructure was
damaged or destroyed, according to the UN.
イスラエル世論調査:ネタニヤフへの支持率29%
53%
of Israelis believe Tel Aviv did not defeat Hamas, 22% believe army lost war
イスラエルのマアリブ新聞に報道によれば、ガザ戦争が100日目を迎える中、イスラエルの53%の人々がハマスに対してまだ勝利していないと考えており、22%が既に敗北したとの意見があります。
ザール・リサーチ研究所が実施した世論調査の結果です。
Q:戦争の結果についての回答
l イスラエルが大勝利:9%
l まだ勝っていないが進行中:53%
l イスラエルが敗北:22%
l 壊滅的な敗北:8%
l 分からない:8%
Ø マアリブは「ガザ地区での戦闘が進まない感じ、イスラエル人の捕虜の問題の停滞、国北部での持続的な消耗戦により、首相ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ率いるリクード党は過去最低の16議席に減少した」と報道。
Ø 調査によれば、リクード党は先週から3議席減の16議席に減少し、ベニー・ガンツ率いる国民統一党は前回の調査から3議席増の39議席となりました。一方で、野党のリーダーであるヤイル・ラピード率いるイェシャ・アティド党は、前回の調査の14議席から13議席となりました。
Ø 全体として、現在のネタニヤフ連立政権は前回の調査の46議席から44議席に減少し、野党は71議席に増加しており、もし今日選挙が行われると、野党が政府を形成できる見通し。
Ø 「イスラエルの首相に適しているのは、ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフかベニー・ガンツか」と尋ねると、51%がベニー・ガンツ、29%がベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ、20%が分からないと回答。
【2024/1/13付MEMO】
53%
of Israelis believe Tel Aviv did not defeat Hamas, 22% believe army lost war
Fifty-three per cent of Israelis believe
that Israel has not yet defeated Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while 22 per cent
shared their view that Tel Aviv has already lost the war.
The data comes from an opinion poll
conducted by the Lazar Research Institute for Israel’s Maariv newspaper,
published on Friday evening, as the war enters its 100th day tomorrow.
When asked whether Israel won or lost the
war, nine per cent said that Israel achieved a great victory, 53 per cent said
that it had not yet won but is in the process of doing so, while 22 per cent of
Israelis believed that their country has already lost the war. Moreover, eight
per cent said that it suffered a crushing defeat, while another eight per cent
said they did not know.
The newspaper reported: “Given the feeling
of progress being slow in the fighting in the Gaza Strip, the continued
stalemate in the issue of the captured Israelis, and the ongoing war of
attrition in the north of the country, the Likud Party (led by Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu) declined to an unprecedented level of only 16 seats,” out
of a total of 120 seats in the Knesset.
According to the poll, Likud declined to 16
seats, losing three seats since last week, while the National Unity party, led
by Benny Gantz, continues to strengthen its position, reaching 39 seats, an
increase of three from the last poll. Meanwhile, the Yesh Atid party, headed by
opposition leader Yair Lapid, won 13 seats compared to 14 in the previous poll.
In total, this week, the government
coalition led by Netanyahu has dropped to 44 seats, compared to 46 in the
previous poll, and the opposition parties have risen to 71 seats, which
qualifies them to form a government if elections were held today.
When asked: “Who is more suited to be Prime
Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu or Benny Gantz?” 51 per cent of Israelis
said Gantz, only 29 per cent said Netanyahu and 20 per cent said they did not
know.
ガザ戦争:アラブ連盟の動き
Arab
League calls for 'binding' UN Security Council resolution to halt Israel war on
Gaza
Arab
League to hold emergency meeting to discuss ICJ ruling on Gaza war
l (1/22付MEMO)アラブ連盟は、ガザ地区におけるイスラエルの攻撃を停止するために国連安全保障理事会に対し「拘束力のある」決議を出すよう呼びかけ。
l この決議は、国際的な平和と安全を維持する責任を安全保障理事会に求め、ガザでの広範で体系的なイスラエルの犯罪を停止するための拘束力のある決議を採択するよう促した。
l アラブ連盟はまた、米国やイスラエルを支持し二重基準を取る国々に対し、国際法に合致する立場を取り、ガザでの完全で持続可能な停戦を呼びかけるよう求めた。イスラエルに対しては、「パレスチニアン人に対する侵略を停止し、ガザ地区からの撤退、封鎖解除、強制的な避難を企む計画と取り組みを抑制する」よう求めた。
l また、アラブ連盟は占領された西岸地区でのイスラエルの犯罪行為を非難し、パレスチナ人難民キャンプとそのインフラの体系的な破壊を取り上げた。
l 安全保障理事会の決議を受け、ガザ地区でのイスラエルの攻勢はHamasによる国境を越えた攻撃に応じて発動され、2万5295人以上のパレスチナ人が死亡し、6万3000人が負傷。この攻勢により、ガザの人口の85%が食料、清潔な水、医薬品の深刻な不足の中で避難し、国連によれば、ガザのインフラの60%が損壊または破壊された。
l (1/28付MEMO)アラブ連盟は、国際司法裁判所(ICJ)がガザ地区におけるイスラエルの攻勢に関する仮処分判決を出したことについて緊急会議を開催する予定。
l ICJは南アフリカが12月29日に提起した、イスラエルがパレスチニアンに対して虐殺を行っているとの告発に対して、その主張が妥当であると認めた。裁判所は仮処分命令を出し、イスラエルに対してガザへの援助物資の妨害を停止し、人道的状況を改善するよう求めた。
l ICJの仮処分判決に反して、イスラエルはガザ地区への攻勢を続けており、10月7日以来、少なくとも26,422人のパレスチナ人が死亡し、主に女性とこどもが含まれ、また65,087人が負傷。
l また、イスラエルが主張していた1139人の兵士や市民は、実際にはイスラエル軍のヘリコプターや戦車によって殺害されたことがHaaretzによって明らかにされた。
【2024/1/22付MEMO】
Arab
League calls for 'binding' UN Security Council resolution to halt Israel war on
Gaza
The Arab League called, Monday, on the UN
Security Council to issue a “binding” resolution for halting a deadly Israeli
offensive on the Gaza Strip, Anadolu Agency reports.
The call came following an emergency
meeting held by the Cairo-based body at the level of permanent delegates upon a
request from Palestine to discuss ways of halting the Israeli war, which has
killed more than 25,000 people since 7 October.
A resolution adopted by the pan-Arab
organisation called on the UN Security Council “to assume its responsibilities
to maintain international peace and security, and to take a binding resolution
to stop the widespread, systematic Israeli crimes against the Palestinian
people.”
It also urged the US and countries
that pursue double standards and support the
Israeli aggression within the Security Council, to follow positions consistent
with international law to call for a complete and sustainable ceasefire in Gaza
The Arab League called for obligating
Israel “to stop its aggression against the Palestinian people, withdraw from
the Gaza Strip, lift the siege and curb its plans and efforts aimed at forced
displacement.”
It also condemned the
escalating Israeli crimes in the Occupied West
Bank, including the systematic destruction of Palestinian refugee camps and
their infrastructure
Monday’s meeting was not attended by Arab
League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit, who is currently in Brussels to
attend a meeting with the foreign ministers of the EU, Israel, Palestine,
Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Israel launched a deadly offensive on the
Gaza Strip following a cross-border attack by Hamas on 7 October, killing at
least 25,295 Palestinians and injuring 63,000. Nearly 1,200 Israelis believed
to have been killed in the Hamas attack.
However, since then, it has been revealed
by Haaretz that helicopters and tanks of the Israeli army had, in fact, killed
many of the 1,139 soldiers and civilians claimed by Israel to have been killed
by the Palestinian Resistance.
The Israeli offensive has left 85 per cent
of Gaza’s population internally displaced amid acute shortages of food, clean
water and medicine, while 60 per cent of the enclave’s infrastructure has been
damaged or destroyed, according to the UN.
【20240128付MEMO】
Arab
League to hold emergency meeting to discuss ICJ ruling on Gaza war
The Arab League is set to hold an emergency
meeting on Sunday to discuss a provisional ruling issued by the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) on Israel’s deadly offensive on the Gaza Strip, reports
Anadolu Agency.
The meeting will be held
at the level of permanent delegates at the request of Palestine to draft an
Arab position on the ICJ ruling, Arab League Assistant Secretary-General Hossam
Zaki said in a statement.
South Africa took Israel to The Hague-based
ICJ on 29 December on charges of genocide against Palestinians amid a deadly
offensive on the Gaza Strip following a Hamas attack on 7 October.
On Friday, the UN court found South
Africa’s claim that Israel is committing genocide plausible.
The court issued an interim order urging
Israel to stop obstructing aid deliveries into Gaza and to improve the
humanitarian situation.
Flouting the ICJ’s provisional ruling,
Israel continues its onslaught on the Gaza Strip where at least 26,422
Palestinians have been killed, mostly women and children, and 65,087 others
injured since 7 October, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel
says nearly 1,200 people have been killed in the Hamas attack.
The Israeli offensive has left 85% of
Gaza’s population internally displaced amid acute shortages of food, clean
water, and medicine, while 60% of the enclave’s infrastructure was damaged or
destroyed, according to the UN.
中東の将来:信頼関係を築き共有できる地域ビジョンを打ち立てる!
Only Regional Cooperation Can Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian
Conflict
中東の将来は国境の統合だけでなく、信頼関係を築き共有できる地域ビジョンを打ち立てる力にも依存している。
- この記事は、中東の将来について具体的には、国境の統合だけでなく、信頼関係を築き共有できる地域ビジョンを構築する力が重要であると主張しています。10月7日のハマスによる攻撃に続くガザでの激しい戦闘が続いており、紛争後の計画は急務であると指摘しています。
- ガザ戦争に対する持続可能な解決策の緊急性を強調し、従来の直接交渉に焦点を当てるだけではなく、地域的な協力と利害を基にした解決策が必要であると主張しています。
- また、過去の交渉の失敗や最近の出来事から、単独での解決は難しいことを示唆し、経済的および政治的手段を組み合わせた地域的なアプローチが求められています。
- 具体的な提案として、人道的危機への対処やエネルギー源の確保、共同経済開発計画、大規模なインフラプロジェクトの実施などが挙げられています。
- アブラハム合意に言及しつつも、進展があってもパレスチニアンを取り残さないように注意が必要であると指摘しています。
- 最終的には、新しい地域ビジョンを構築し、不安定さを協力に、戦争を平和に変えることが目指されています。
【参考和訳】
ハマスによる10月7日の攻撃に続くガザでの激しい戦闘はまだ収束していない。130人以上のイスラエル人が未だにハマスに拘束されており、ガザの人々への影響は増している。同時に、イエメンからレバノン、イラクまで、地域各地で緊張が高まり、紛争が広がる可能性が増している。このような状況の中、紛争後の計画は早急に始めるべきだ。
現在進行中の暴力は、イスラエル・パレスチナ紛争に対する持続可能な解決策の緊急性を示している。従来、解決の試みは対立する当事者間の直接交渉に焦点を当ててきたが、中東の戦略的な現実の進化から、これを単なる希望的な戦略から今日の戦略的必然性へと変えるべきだ。過去3か月の紛争は、癒えるのに数年かかる傷を負わせ、前方にはかなりの課題が待ち構えている。しかし、戦争の恐怖と絶望に陥ってはならない。積極的で共同のアプローチが、パレスチナだけでなく、イスラエルや中東全体の将来にとっても不可欠だ。
数十年にわたる失敗に終わった交渉と最近の出来事は、イスラエルとパレスチニナだけではこの紛争を解決できないことを示している。解決策は経済的および政治的手段を組み合わせた地域的なものであるべきだ。直ちに人道的危機に対処するため、UAEはガザに3つの海水淡水化プラントを設立し、1日30万ガロンの飲み水を生産する計画を発表した。エジプト、ヨルダン、UAE、サウディアラビアなどからの支援とともに、戦争の災害が水と食料の安全保障などの持続的な課題を覆い隠していることを思い起こさせる。ガザの持続可能なエネルギー源は、これらが長期的な解決策となるために不可欠だ。
イスラエル、西岸地域、ヨルダンのための共同経済開発計画は、他の地域の参加を伴っている。ガザの発展は単独で見るべきではなく、より広範な国際的な経済計画の一部として考えるべきだ。将来を見据えて、規制の障壁に対処し、プロセスを効率化し、インセンティブを提供する政策が、ガザの将来を可能にするための投資環境を創り出すために重要だ。
米国主導のインド-中東-ヨーロッパ経済回廊(IMEC)などの大規模な横断的なインフラプロジェクトは、経済成長と地域間の連結性を促進できる。インフラ開発のためのロードマップは、短期目標と長期目標のバランスを取るべきだ。
政治的には、まだまだ多くの仕事が残されている。緊張緩和と地域統合が不可欠だ。アブラハム合意は、最近の緊張にもかかわらず、地域の発展と安定性に高く評価されている。ただし、イスラエルとアラブ諸国の進展はパレスチナを取り残さないようにすべきだ。むしろ、目標はイスラエルとパレスチナの両方を地域に統合することであるべきだ。地域協力の効果は、地域大国が役割を果たすことへのコミットメントだけでなく、イスラエルとパレスチナが交渉し譲歩する意欲にも依存している。地域の枠組みはこれを実現しやすくする。
この枠組みの中心には、戦後の中東地域を再建し発展させるのに役立つ新しい地域ビジョンがある。地中海からヨルダン川までのエリアは、アラブ世界とヨーロッパの自然な架け橋であり、開発と成長の膨大なポテンシャルを有している。新しいビジョンは、短期的には地域を安定させ、中期的には平和で協力的な地域に変え、長期的には繁栄し経済的に戦略的な地域に変えることを目指する。
最近、ドイツのボンで開催されたワークショップでは、ドイツ・アブラハム合意研究所とボン大学の先進戦略安全保障・統合研究センターが牽引するもので、この方針の最初のステップが踏まれた。このワークショップは、新しい地域的ビジョンを作り出すことを目指すMENA2050の一員であるイスラエル、パレスチナ、サウディアラビア、UAE、バーレーン、エジプトを含む影響力のある人たちを集めたアイデアの鍋だった。ワークショップの議題は、中東のガザ戦争後の新しい概念的な地域フレームワークを設計することであり、経済の再生、外交のシナジー、革新的な進歩が基盤となる平和な未来を構築することだった。
緊張が高まる中、私たちは安定性と平和は敵対者同士でも協力が必要であることを思い起こす。中東の将来は国境の統合だけでなく、信仰の飛躍と共有の地域ビジョンを打ち立てる能力にも依存している。持続可能な平和と安全保障のためには、すべての関係者が紛争よりも協力を優先し、共有の存在と絡み合った未来を認識する必要がある。地域の人々として、その過去に形成され、その未来に投資された我々は、影響力のある地域ネットワークと協力して、地域を導く新しいビジョンを形成する手助けができると信じている。このビジョンは、不安定さを協力に、戦争を平和に変えるものだ。
【2024/01/24付The National Interest】
Only Regional Cooperation Can Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian
Conflict
The future of the Middle
East depends not only on the integrity of borders but also on our ability to
take a leap of faith and forge a shared regional vision.
by
Eli Bar-On Abdulla Al Junaid Follow Abdulla Aljunaid on TwitterL Abdalaziz
Alkhamis Sarah Awaidah Gedaliah Afterman Shlomo Hasson
The intense fighting in Gaza following the
October 7 attack by Hamas is still ongoing. More than 130 Israeli hostages are
still being held by Hamas, and the heavy toll on the people of Gaza is growing.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the region, from Yemen to Lebanon to Iraq, tensions are
rising and increasing the prospects for the conflict to spill over. In this
climate, it might seem premature, but planning for the post-conflict period
must begin now.
The ongoing violence shows the urgency of a
sustainable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Traditionally,
resolution efforts focused on direct negotiations between the conflicting
parties. However, the Middle East’s evolving strategic reality necessitates a
regional solution grounded in regional cooperation and interests, transforming
it from a hopeful strategy in the past to a strategic imperative today.
The past three months of conflict have
inflicted wounds that will take years to heal, and the challenges ahead are
considerable. Yet, we must not succumb to the horrors and despair of war. A
proactive, joint approach is essential to forging a better future not only for
Palestinians and Israelis but for the entire Middle East.
Decades of unsuccessful negotiations and
recent events demonstrate that Israelis and Palestinians alone cannot resolve
this conflict. The solution must be regional, combining economic and political
measures.
Addressing the immediate humanitarian
crisis, the United Arab Emirates has announced plans to establish three
desalination plants in Gaza, producing 600,000 gallons of drinking water daily
for 300,000 people. Field hospitals and aid from Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi
Arabia, and others are reminders that war’s calamities mask enduring challenges
like water and food security that need to be resolved. Sustainable energy
sources for Gaza are vital for these to become long-term solutions.
Joint economic development plans for
Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan, with participation from other regional
players, are crucial. Gaza’s development should not be viewed in isolation but
as part of a broader international economic plan. Looking ahead, policies that
attract local and international businesses by addressing regulatory barriers,
streamlining processes, and offering incentives are key to creating a conducive
investment environment that will enable a better future for Gaza.
Major cross-regional infrastructure
projects, like the U.S.-led India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, can
stimulate economic growth and regional connectivity. A roadmap for
infrastructure development should balance short-term and long-term goals.
Politically, there is much work to be done.
De-escalation and regional integration are crucial. The Abraham Accords,
despite recent strains, remain highly relevant for regional development and
stability. However, progress between Israel and Arab states must not leave
Palestinians behind. Instead, the goal should be integrating both Israel and
the Palestinians into the region. The effectiveness of regional cooperation
depends not only on the commitment of regional powers to play a role but also
on the willingness of Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate and make
concessions. A regional framework would make this easier to achieve.
At the center of this framework is a new
regional vision that will assist in reconstructing and developing the area
between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River after the war. A natural
bridge between the Arab world and Europe, this area has an enormous potential
for development and growth. The new vision will aim to stabilize the region in
the short term, transform the region into a peaceful and cooperative area in
the mid-term, and turn it into a prosperous and economically strategic area in
the long term.
Important first steps were taken recently
in a workshop in Bonn, Germany, spearheaded by the German Abraham Accords
Institute and Bonn University’s Center for Advanced Strategic Security and
Integration Studies. This gathering was a melting pot of ideas, bringing
together Israelis, Palestinians, Saudis, Emiratis, Bahrainis, and Egyptians—all
influential figures and members of MENA2050, an organization striving to create
a new regional vision. The workshop’s agenda aimed to architect a new
conceptual, regional framework for the Middle East’s post-Gaza war era, a
peaceful future where economic revitalization, diplomatic synergy, and
innovative progress are keystones.
As tensions escalate, we are reminded that
stability and peace require cooperation, even among foes. The future of the
Middle East depends not only on the integrity of borders but also on our
ability to take a leap of faith and forge a shared regional vision. For lasting
peace and security, all parties must prioritize cooperation over conflict, recognizing
our collective existence and intertwined future. As people of the region,
shaped by its past and invested in its future, we believe that while working
with our influential regional networks, we can help shape a new vision to lead
our region. This vision will replace instability with cooperation and war with
peace.
Eli
Bar-On is an Israeli. He serves as the Executive
Director of MENA2050 and is a former professor at the Israel National Defense
College.
Abdulla
Al Junaid is a Bahraini. He is a Geo-Political
columnist in Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab
Emirates, and a Non-Resident Fellow at Trends Research & Advisory UAE. He
contributes columns on geopolitics, security, and defense in various newspapers
in the Arab Gulf.
Abdalaziz
Alkhamis is a Saudi journalist and researcher
specializing in Islamic movements and the Middle East conflict. He serves as
the presenter of “Friendly Fire” on Sky News Arabia and produces the Gulf Talk
program at the Arab News Network London.
Sarah
Awaidah is a Palestinian. She serves as MENA2050’s
Chief Operations Director and Co-founder of MENA Aid, a regional humanitarian
coalition.
Dr. Gedaliah Afterman is an Israeli. He is Head of the Asia-Israel Policy Program
at the Abba Eban Institute.
Prof.
Shlomo Hasson is Israeli. He is a Professor
Emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and head of the James Shasha
Center for Strategic Studies.